The unimaginable (ten or more years ago) finally happened: China´s total of import and export was 3,82 biljoen dollar (2,86 biljoen euro). The US ended 2012 with a total of $3,81.
The Chinese did even better when you look at import/export ratio with a trade surplus of $231.1bn with the US closing 2012 with trade deficit of $727.9bn. This year started out even better so a good chance the difference will be even larger at the end of 2013.
The US has dominated the post-war (no, neither Vietnam, nor Irak, but WOII 🙂 period so this is a major upturn of world economics. It´s an amazing feat considering that the Chinese economy as a whole is so much smaller than the US. They truly are the traders of the world.
It won´t be long before China will start using its considerable influence on the world economy to achieve its political goals. So far the Chinese have ´played dumb´ by not bullying the world but entering into strategic agreements and avoiding saber rattling.
How to conquer the world: ´it´s the economy, stupid!´ seems to be leading principle. Why spend billions on aircraft carriers when a smart deal with African countries guarantees a steady flow of raw materials. And if needs be, a very silent submarine can create havoc around the huge battle formations employed by the US by just turning up in the middle of the flotilla.
How long before China starts using its economic power directly in achieving its political goals or did we already pass that turning point? #Politics
Thank you Apple, Walmart, Target for making this possible. 🙂
In Canada, that point has passed.
Long live quarterly profit statements and outsourcing!
Very interesting article. Thank you for posting!
As for the rest of the world, can you kòu tóu yet?
+Jera Wolfe +Gilbert Daniel +alias inkhorn +Mark Thompson
if this surprize someone they are being ridiculous. It's simple.
They want oil, so they are transferring all the money to the middle east to get it.
They think labor is too expensive in the US, so they are transferring all the jobs to China.
This is what you get when you are unwilling to change and live in a Disney 50's nostalgia world.
The EU will adapt. We are pragmatic enough.
Normal, they produce most of things.
We (most of countries) have give to them our production and more important our methods and tools.
The only way to counteract the influence of China is to act together, but global capitalism calls the shots in most western nations. They chase profits and international borders are of no importance to them. They have no allegiance to any one western nation or group of nations. You can bet that they like this trend and will work against anything that would hurt China with its huge emerging market and productive capacity.
We are becoming a third world nation and in order to stay viable we will have to reduce wages, crush unions and destroy environmental and safety protections. Those things are happening now. The correction of 2008 has made many people realize just how vulnerable they are. Now they are beginning to see that this trend is not likely to get better and has the potential for getting much worse. Welcome to the New World Order.
These things are just crazy!!!!
The projections had been predicting this for some years now, but now we have the tipping point.
Having money is nothing; Increasing the revenue is. Soon they will face a bigger problem, since workers are requesting for higher salaries and companies can't afford it anymore. Companies are gonna be moved to poorer countries and China will need them, as the world needed China for some point.
But, as a power, China could stop exporting goods for just a season and things will get nasty.
US dominance was wholly based on a lack of competition after ww2. We saw that competition rebuilt by 1970 and certain markets lose share to production and services in other countries (electronics, cars, etc).
In that time efficiency and innovation by US companies wasn't terribly necessary. And tort only gets you so far.
It was just a matter of time.
It buys votes
+George Kozi The EU, pragmatic? Hardly!
The true wealth of a nation is in the minds of its people.
Life in Shanghai is good if you ever visit let me know.
Been away 4 years from the US. I expect that 1-2 generations will suffer in terms of standard/quality of living due to our countries lack of fiscal responsibility and half measures.
fud piece
Far, far past "that point." As long as there is material, energy, and labor, China will outproduce the US as long as any of us live. Who knows… one day there may even be a global workers revolution to follow global capitalism.
Debt is good for business. Banks love debt. It allows them to "print" money. Also the more in debt you are the greater control banks have and less the individual has.
On a national scale it works the same. Just look at Greece. They had only two choices, to play along with the bankers or default. They played a long and will be paying back for a long time and bankers have more say in Greek domestic policy. In effect, they are owned until they can climb out of debt.
We are deluding ourselves if we think that we are free or that capitalists care about you. You are just a number in a ledger to them. Increasingly that ledger is international.
It was just a matter of time. Quite a milestone though.
I love how you spell billion with a j.
He is a Hollander!
China has lent us so much money that if we default on our loans they will vanish off the fiscal map… who owns whom at this point?
Not really surprised…
If you add up all the trade surpluses and deficits the answer is not zero, because of all the criminals. Maybe they are the true owners.
Remember it is just a developing nation
Thanks for calling this out, +Max Huijgen. Might have missed it otherwise. It is indeed a historical moment. One question it prompts, of course, is how long the US dollar will continue as de facto trading currency.
If the US, with the biggest army this world has ever seen, wants to stay on top, it has to do something drastic, very soon. If they don't, their empire is lost. As soon as the big banks start to move to Bejing, you know it's too late.
This is an extremely misleading picture. In no way are we "owned" or close to getting owned by China due to excessive debt. Out of our roughly 16 trillion (as of september 2012) we owe China 1.16 trillion. We owe Japan 1.12 trillion. Let's get our facts straight and reduce the scare tactics.
Source: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/04/who-do-owe-most-that-16-trillion-to-hint-it-isnt-china/
The answer is now. Another interesting question is what are its political objectives?
Btw lots of good comments above
What is "owned" (major share of) by foreign nations, is US government debt. Situation with corporations and real estate is whole other math.
The major shareholder in debt threat is not that they will seize what is theirs, it is the long term leverage, where the US must make-nice to the shareholders.
Advanced debt slavery and usury in a world full of peace and love
Control the debt of any people or nation,you can control them
The mentality of currency keeps itself in power for it is the international flow of currency,resources,leverage,and debt that governs life on this planet
+alias inkhorn A country with a government that has infinite money but chooses to let the citizens in poverty is not a developing country.
“If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has.”
― John Maynard Keynes
The debt situation is considerably less about China "owning" the US and more to do with manipulating money markets and maintaining trade deficits. Any attempts to use these instruments as political clout would be eagerly met by a market that would quickly buy up the discounted instruments leading to a minor and short-term discomfort for the US and a much larger long-term economic damage to China's economics in immediate monetary gains, economy, and reputation.
One of these quotes which was probably never made by Keynes, but very true nevertheless +Paul Hosking
There are lots of quotes about the economy I love, even though I suspect the people saying them are probably quoting someone else.
http://soniceditions.com/image/space-is-a-dangerous-place
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/economy.html
No surprise to me +Max Huijgen. We talked about China's world domination potential in the schoolyard during the 60s. The lack of oversight, no FCC, FDA, SEC, etc., convolutes their economic picture. Currency devaluation and labor controls clouds the image further.
In answer to your question, "How long before China starts using its economic power directly in achieving its political goals or did we already pass that turning point?" I believe this was their goal from the beginning and now that they have economic traction and momentum, they will press to achieve their ultimate goals of world domination. Most of the industrialized world sold their souls to the cheap labor devil. Last I read, they surpassed the USA in IP. Yes, in my opinion, we are passed the turning point.
My, isn't this post's comments full of Chicken Littles. 😉
Accounting risk clouds U.S. business in China
http://goo.gl/z09eD
+Ricardo Munoz race "capitalists" with "crony capitalists" and I agree.
This is somewhat off-topic, but as a former SONAR tech I would just like to assure everyone that no Chinese ( or Russian) sub could possibly "turn up" in the middle of a US Navy floatilla. Chinese subs are quite distinctive- can't say why.
Still happened +Jeremy Walker I´m very factual in my post. Check the first google hit http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/nov/13/20061113-121539-3317r/?page=all (there are numerous stories about the incident, but the WP is a decent source) Use google with ´chinese sub us carrier´
It's not the quantities that count it's the quality.
The quality of the dollar +Yossi Haddad?
At what cost to the planet? The real question should be: How long can we afford to let China continuing polluting this way? Who cares how much money nation A or nation B has when the only thing left to spend it on are gas masks and anti-radiation shields…?
+Gary S. Hart question is what are the objectives? World domination is so 20th century. Citizens happiness in a peaceful coopetition is the right and only possible objective
Cc +Max Huijgen
+Max Huijgen Wow. I stand corrected.
Whe the walls are unbreachable, someone forgets to close the gate!
+Ricardo Munoz there's a distinct difference, and I'll argue "all" with you all day long 😉
No longer the greatest? Get over it… we never were.
Without government help those capitalists can't achieve monopoly status though. That's the distinct difference.
This makes me sad.
+Ricardo Munoz once again you mistake one for the other. China's evolving market is a textbook case of crony capitalism. And by calling the factories capitalist you si a great disservice to the one theory that has advanced civilizations faster than any other.
It's about to get worse
I've not reviewed all the comments. But what if there is no need to deal with creating an "ideal society." Let the cards fall as they may. Critiques of capitalism stand, just as the others; time will test all theory. In that, "what next?" still resonates.
Just to add to that, I heard a thread of reasoning over that past few months just won't seem to dissipate. Apparently, "capitalism" needs to be done "just right," i.e. a lack of government interference in markets, in order to work. Obviously, China shows us another way. For my interest, it seems China teaches a lesson. Government is not exclusive of free markets, no matter the rhetoric we hear in the US.
If the post did not spelled out China, it would almost certainly be describing US policy for the past 100 years.
+Ricardo Munoz I must have missed that dichotomy in Marx. 😉 By my reading, and one can read whatever they like into several portions of his work, Marx simply considered capitalism a productive force: producing its own demise. The Chinese appear familiar with this, as apparently 19th century pragmatists they are. The "State," for lack of any better term, the face of social organization in China, is long on a road to irrelevancy. Only an occidental idealist sees government in every pot; worse to call it a "something."
+Jeremy Walker In my drone reports collection is a study by the US Navy claiming that drug smugglers are using submarine stealth drones which are undetectable with current technology. Their fear is that these subs will be used by terrorists to deliver WMD to our major ports. I figure the purpose of the research paper is to persuade Washington DC to authorize more funds for submarine stealth detection technology.
Dear friends,
Business has nothing to do with politics but with co-operation, the respect of the golden rule, the ethics of reciprocity and the 12 laws of karma.
Deng Xiaoping, the man who created the one country two systems concept and the open door policy once said, it's not important if the mice are red or black, the importance is that they catch mice.
If your country is open, random and supportive, it will be a winning country, if it's close, selective and controlling, it will be a losing country but politics has nothing to do with this!
During Mao Zetong's great proletarian cultural revolution, China was a close, selective and controlling country.
At the end of Mao Zetong's great proletarian cultural revolution, two third of all Chinese lived lived below absolute poverty level of a daily income that was below one single US dollar.
At the end of Deng Xiaoping's open door policy, China has saved over 500 million Chinese out of poverty thanks to an open, random and supportive business model!
The US Republican are like Mao Zetong, close, selective and controlling while the US Democrats are like Deng Xiaoping, open, random and supportive!
The US is one country with two parties, one negative, the other positive, very much like the Chinese yin and yang concept!
The US is winning with the Democrats and losing with the Republicans!
The Chinese were winning with Deng Xiaoping's open door policy and losing with Mao Zetong's great proletarian cultural revolution!
George H. W. Bush, the 41st President of the United States of America, was the first unofficial Ambassador of the US in 1974, during Mao Zetong's cultural revolution.
He later explained ENRON how the cultural revolution worked!
ENRON created the war for talent that bankrupted ENRON in 2001!
On July 22nd, 2002 Malcolm Gladwell wrote in the New Yorker "the talent myth" where he asked if smart people are overrated?
The war for talent, the Western style great cultural revolution, has cost their jobs to over 120 million older, experienced employees and 80 million young people aged between 15 and 25 years are now unemployed according to Geneva based ILO (International Labor Organization).
We have to shift from close, selective and controlling Western countries into open, random and supportive ones to solve our own problems!
China did it, we fired to guys who wanted it.
+Jeremy Walker Here is link to where I found that US Navy report on the new kind of undetectable submarine drones:
Navy Drone Submarines 2011 June[1]
[1] 2012 Oct 10 located at http://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=689011 but not downloaded. 1 meg. This is about how drug smugglers use underwater drones, called drug subs, or narco submarines, as part of their infrastructure in delivering illegal drugs to where their market demand is located. These vehicles are seemingly almost impossible to detect, so there are fears about how terrorists may use them in the future.
We now have a drone technology war, like the space race. the US started ahead in the drone wars and cyber security, but is rapidly shooting itself in the feet instead..
+Ricardo Munoz there is no false dichotomy in crony capitalism… It's a true boolean equation. While it can be to varying degrees, government is either in bed with business or not.
+Jeffrey Hamby, there are many levels of being in bed; grey scales rather than boolean. Business has always had it's hand in the political cookie jar. It just happens to be much deeper right now. Dr. Benjamin Carson announced the 4th branch of government at the National Prayer Breakfast, "Special Interest Groups." We can change that if we use our strength in a united way instead of fight among ourselves.
I'd wager "capitalism," a system of modern political econ based on industrial production, could not exist without a government to sustain it.
Well I pointed out the levels in between to make the point that it's still boolean. Any level of collusion between government and business is crony capitalism.
+Todd Kliewer I'd suggest that's because it's what you've seen in your lifetime. There are fine examples throughout history of that not being the case though.
+Jeffrey Hamby Only during my meager and uniformed lifetime…ha! How about just giving a decent single historical example? Also, I'd wager all "capitalism," is "crony capitalism." There is no such thing as economic relations w/o social relations.
Social relations and government intervention in favor of companies aren't the same thing. And one quick example would be Neutral Moresnet, but I gather Google world where you live too.
Never said they were the "same thing," just that both "crony" social relations and government are required for "capitalism" to function.
Is this the Neutral Moresnet you are talking about?
http://www.moresnet.nl/english/index_en.htm
At first glance, it sure looks like Neutral Moresnet was "state-run"/ "corporate" mining operation. I suppose the Jonestown commune would qualify in your world as well? What about Neutral Moresnet makes its economy interesting in discussing a diverse modern industrial economy.
+alias inkhorn Sez you… 🙂 They appear inseparable. Or are you talking about some kind of utopia instead?
+Todd Kliewer crony doesn't describe social relations within the economy. Crony capitalism is the governmental intervention in the market on behalf of companies. That's what I meant when I said they're not the same.
And if you're not going to bother to read up on capitalism that worked, there's no sense in continuing the conversation.
From the link: "In fact the justification of Neutral Moresnet’s existence had ended when the zinc mine was depleted." A strange way to define "worked." I'd say it failed. Neither is it an example modern industrial capitalism without government influence, since the corporation was the local government. From my perspective, Neutral Moresnet is a fine example of "crony capitalism."
The onus is on you to detail what makes Neutral Moresnet apply as an example of capitalism without a government. The currency and laws were French.
+alias inkhorn My day is ruined. Another crazy G+ narcissist has rejected me. Darn.
Maybe this will help then. http://bit.ly/VbeJ9I
I never thought I'd live to see the era in which the President and his allies (Congress and the Press) actively push policies to destroy the great American experiment of freedom and self determination..
+Jeffrey Hamby Thanks for that link; it yielded no examples. I didn't think there were any either. If a historical example existed, it would be likely irrelevant, as social evolution and its mode of production now far outstrip the model of "pure capitalism." I suggest some courses in historical economics might be in order. Pure "anything" is really just an appeal away from reason and sound methodology.
+Todd Kliewer just showing you how google works, as you didn't seem to be too keen on finding examples by yourself. I can come up with plenty, but again, leading you through the first one was like pulling teeth, and a waste of my time.
Back to work for me…
+Jeffrey Hamby And thank you for that! Google is apparently far too mysterious to be left to just anyone. Unfortunately, the lack of any positive results fail to support your point. Part of Google's use is actually clicking on the results. I'd make a video, but you seem pretty busy. I suggest, that if possible, try actual historical evidence rather than relying on perceived objects of the mind to create examples of where "pure capitalism" might have existed. Maybe a page with links with examples of "pure capitalism" would have got you a bit further. (It still would not have saved you from idealizing the past.) From info on the link I posted, Neutral Moresnet was obviously closer to a weird corporate feudalism, than it was to capitalism. Also, the people of Neutral Moresnet had no right to self-government. Not so good.
If you can't find the positive posts, it's because you're not trying. I found plenty on my quick search.
Now I'm just muting this.. it's devolved into a waste of time for everyone involved. My apologies +Max Huijgen
#criticalthinkingfail
+Ricardo Munoz Funny you should say that, I've been reading in Popper recently,and I'll admit that Marx's mechanistic historicism could be a problem. Marx was quite the conservative. I'm unwilling to toss out the open system of dialectical materialism to remedy that.
Discourse is never a complete waste of time +Jeffrey Hamby
+Max Huijgen I agree, but only when it's actually discourse 😉
+Jeffrey Hamby Critical thinking would involve evidence, explanations with it, and not setting out at me with an ad hominem attack out of the gate.
From your own "about" page, I find the irony priceless: "I also love a good debate. When someone I don't agree with participates without falling for logical fallacies I'm all ears. When fallacies are incorporated though, I tend to block people. There's just no time to deal with that."
Sorry to have ruffled your already tenuous emotional balance.
+Jeffrey Hamby Try an informed discourse next time, I'm all ears.
+Todd Kliewer sorry, but I'm done. Iv'e already explained that it's apparent to me you didn't try to find anything relevant, though I was quickly able to. Move along, keep your ideas.
+Jeffrey Hamby How in the %^&* can you say that??? Every single link on the Google page you sent me tells me there is no such thing as pure modern capitalism – and never has been. Be done. But know you've soundly defeated yourself. Next time, if you want to take on a historian, you'll need to provide evidence.
Competing for the last word is never productive. The initial debate was interesting though.
+Todd Kliewer that was an exercise in smarm on my part. The goal was to get you to actually use a search engine, something you'd shown you were not willing to do up to that point.
And stop linking me, I've said several times (you can hit Ctrl-F to search this time) that I'm done. I don't believe you're a critical thinker, and I do feel like this is a waste of time, more so now than when I said it before.
Agreed +Max Huijgen . If he links me again, I'll simply not respond. I hate to trash your otherwise valid post and discussion here with a flame war.
+Alister Macintyre Thanks for the link. I've only looked over the paper, but I would like to point out that this is not an official USN report. It is a student paper, probably by an LtJG seeking assignment as an ASWO (Anti-submarine Warfare Officer). Most of this info was known in the '90s, though then classified as SECRET NOFORN. The phrase "practically impossible to detect" is quite misleading (as I'm sure the instructor pointed out to this student). It's not really a matter of tech: ALL self-propelled (motorized) vessels so far invented are detectable by WWII-era SONAR. It's more a matter of focus: listen in the right direction and know what your listening for. There are many ways to mask a signature, but even sail-powered vessels make noise that can be detected.
Also, I believe a well-built, well-stocked sub with a highly-trained crew is much more of a threat (for the forseeable future) than any drone could be. "Semi-submersibles" (this is a misnomer) are very slow and many have been detected by satellite. A fully submersible drone would need to stream a surface antenna for navigation (GPS). Such an antenna would have its own easily detectable signature. My guess is the "Go-Fast" fleets will continue to be the most cost-efficient tool for smugglers of all types for at least a couple more decades.
Thanks again.
+Alister Macintyre OK, this is obviously not written by a LtJG, but I stand by the rest of my comment.
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Not all is lost, with secret court and secret surveillance, we are catching up to China as well.
lol +Michael Zhuang Won't be long before we start eating chinese food, use chinese products and sent our children to study Mandarin.
Oh wait, we already do that…